Most notebook thefts are done by amateurs. There’s no way to know if they’ll be technically proficient enough to wipe the hard drive, thus wiping out the tracking application, before going online. There’s a good chance that the thief won’t be proficient. The act is likely to be a grab and swipe. The thief may be thinking of selling the notebook on eBay or pawning it, or he may even want to give it to a family member or friend as a present.
Even worse, from the thief’s perspective, he may not even be able to start the laptop. My ThinkPad has a TPM – Trusted Platform Module – on the motherboard. Other than knowing precisely what the configuration of my notebook is, it also contains the password for the device, and it’s not erasable. Unless the thief can guess my password, he’s not going to start the notebook without changing the system board.
But what if you don’t have a power-on password set? What if the notebook is just sleeping or hibernating when it's stolen?
Then the thief will be very happy. Maybe he’ll watch a few YouTube videos and play some online games before selling or giving away your notebook. There’s a very good chance that he will want to try out the notebook as soon as possible.